Transport
The transport sector is now the UK’s largest source of emissions, and transport was responsible for around 24% of UK emissions in 2020. Most of this was carbon dioxide, with the vast majority being from road transport. Emissions of CO2 are closely related to the amount of fuel used, whilst nitrous oxide and methane emissions are influenced more by the vehicle type and age. This sector also includes domestic aviation and shipping (i.e. journeys that both start and finish in the UK), but not international aviation and shipping.
Although emissions from the transport sector have fallen below their peak in the early 2000s, there was very little overall change over the 10 years to 2019. In 2019, emissions at source were at almost exactly the same level as they were in 2011. Unsurprisingly, 2020 subsequently saw a large fall in emissions as a result of the national lockdowns that were introduced in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The additional end-user emissions are emissions from the energy supply sector which have been re-allocated to transport. Only a small proportion of this relates to electricity for charging electric vehicles - the majority are due to processing of fuels, at refineries for example.
Although emissions from the transport sector have fallen below their peak in the early 2000s, there was very little overall change over the 10 years to 2019. In 2019, emissions at source were at almost exactly the same level as they were in 2011. Unsurprisingly, 2020 subsequently saw a large fall in emissions as a result of the national lockdowns that were introduced in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The additional end-user emissions are emissions from the energy supply sector which have been re-allocated to transport. Only a small proportion of this relates to electricity for charging electric vehicles - the majority are due to processing of fuels, at refineries for example.
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Road transport is the most significant source of emissions in this sector - those are mostly from passenger cars, but light and heavy goods vehicles also contribute heavily.
With the transport sector having been significantly affected by the pandemic in 2020, it may be better to look at what was happening up to 2019. Although there was a steady long-term increase in both the number of passenger vehicles and vehicle kilometres travelled since 1990, emissions gradually decreased from 2017 to 2019, due to slightly lower petrol and diesel consumption in those years. Diesel consumption, which had been increasing steadily since 1990, decreased slightly in both 2018 and 2019. Combined with improvements in the fuel efficiency of both petrol and diesel cars, this resulted in a slight decrease in emissions from passenger cars in 2018 and 2019. However, this was accompanied by a steady increase in the number of light goods vehicles, which tend to use diesel fuel rather than petrol.
With the transport sector having been significantly affected by the pandemic in 2020, it may be better to look at what was happening up to 2019. Although there was a steady long-term increase in both the number of passenger vehicles and vehicle kilometres travelled since 1990, emissions gradually decreased from 2017 to 2019, due to slightly lower petrol and diesel consumption in those years. Diesel consumption, which had been increasing steadily since 1990, decreased slightly in both 2018 and 2019. Combined with improvements in the fuel efficiency of both petrol and diesel cars, this resulted in a slight decrease in emissions from passenger cars in 2018 and 2019. However, this was accompanied by a steady increase in the number of light goods vehicles, which tend to use diesel fuel rather than petrol.
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Although figures on the number of new vehicle licenses show that sales of electric and hybrid vehicles are going up, not all these new vehicles are replacing existing petrol and diesel ones. Some of these new vehicles are additional, with the previously owned petrol and diesel cars remaining on the road.
What needs to be done to reach net-zero?
The UK Government has committed to ending the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030, so it’s likely that sales of these vehicles will slow steadily as we head towards that year. However, it will be important that new electric vehicles (EVs) are actually replacing older petrol and diesel vehicles currently being driven, are that these are not just additional vehicles on the road.
More will need to be done between now and 2025 to remove the barriers to people choosing EVs over petrol and diesel vehicles. That will include greater investment in building the UK’s charging infrastructure, so that on-road charging points are plentiful and easily accessible, and that fast-charging is the norm rather than the exception. The payment system used by chargers will also need to improve, so that re-charging an electric vehicle is just as simple as paying to refill a car with fuel at a petrol station. Vehicle ranges will need to increase if switching is to be encouraged.
The cost of EVs is also prohibitively high at present, discouraging people who might think about switching from doing so. The variety of EVs available on the market will need to increase, and their cost come down, if EVs are to become a more attractive option. All these things are already happening - but slowly. There will need to be more progress on all these things in the next few years, not until closer to 2030.
Emissions from both Light and Heavy Goods Vehicles (LGVs and HGVs) remain significant. Whilst emissions from passenger cars have come down over the last 30 years, despite an increase in the vehicle kilometres travelled, emissions from LGVs have noticeably increased over the same period. At the same time, HGVs have seen very little change in overall emissions. The vast majority of LGVs use diesel fuel, and as with cars, the cost of switching to electric LGVs is currently prohibitively high. The number of different vehicles on the market is very limited, and this situation will need to change if switching is to be encouraged.
The UK will also need to build its renewables capacity, so that as drivers do gradually switch to EVs, these new vehicles are powered by renewable energy. At present, if every driver switched to an electric vehicle tomorrow that would be very bad news for the climate. This is because, with the UK’s existing renewables infrastructure not being capable of meeting the additional demand from all the new vehicles, most of the additional electricity needed to charge those vehicles would have to be generated by gas-fired, or even worse, coal-fired power stations. Burning fossil fuels to generate the additional electricity would generate more, rather than fewer, greenhouse gas emissions. So it’s vital that renewable sources increase in parallel, and are available to match the demand for electricity as people switch to EVs.
What needs to be done to reach net-zero?
The UK Government has committed to ending the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030, so it’s likely that sales of these vehicles will slow steadily as we head towards that year. However, it will be important that new electric vehicles (EVs) are actually replacing older petrol and diesel vehicles currently being driven, are that these are not just additional vehicles on the road.
More will need to be done between now and 2025 to remove the barriers to people choosing EVs over petrol and diesel vehicles. That will include greater investment in building the UK’s charging infrastructure, so that on-road charging points are plentiful and easily accessible, and that fast-charging is the norm rather than the exception. The payment system used by chargers will also need to improve, so that re-charging an electric vehicle is just as simple as paying to refill a car with fuel at a petrol station. Vehicle ranges will need to increase if switching is to be encouraged.
The cost of EVs is also prohibitively high at present, discouraging people who might think about switching from doing so. The variety of EVs available on the market will need to increase, and their cost come down, if EVs are to become a more attractive option. All these things are already happening - but slowly. There will need to be more progress on all these things in the next few years, not until closer to 2030.
Emissions from both Light and Heavy Goods Vehicles (LGVs and HGVs) remain significant. Whilst emissions from passenger cars have come down over the last 30 years, despite an increase in the vehicle kilometres travelled, emissions from LGVs have noticeably increased over the same period. At the same time, HGVs have seen very little change in overall emissions. The vast majority of LGVs use diesel fuel, and as with cars, the cost of switching to electric LGVs is currently prohibitively high. The number of different vehicles on the market is very limited, and this situation will need to change if switching is to be encouraged.
The UK will also need to build its renewables capacity, so that as drivers do gradually switch to EVs, these new vehicles are powered by renewable energy. At present, if every driver switched to an electric vehicle tomorrow that would be very bad news for the climate. This is because, with the UK’s existing renewables infrastructure not being capable of meeting the additional demand from all the new vehicles, most of the additional electricity needed to charge those vehicles would have to be generated by gas-fired, or even worse, coal-fired power stations. Burning fossil fuels to generate the additional electricity would generate more, rather than fewer, greenhouse gas emissions. So it’s vital that renewable sources increase in parallel, and are available to match the demand for electricity as people switch to EVs.
