Domestic Transport
The domestic transport sector is now the UK’s largest source of emissions, and transport was responsible for around 29% of UK emissions in 2023. Most of this was carbon dioxide, with the vast majority being from road transport. Emissions of CO2 are closely related to the amount of fuel used, whilst nitrous oxide and methane emissions are influenced more by the vehicle type and age. This sector also includes domestic aviation and shipping (i.e. journeys that both start and finish in the UK), but not international aviation and shipping.
Although emissions from this sector have fallen below their peak in the early 2000s, there was very little overall change over the 10 years to 2019. In 2019, emissions at source were at exactly the same level as they were in 2012. The following two years, 2020 and 2021, were both affected by the national lockdowns that were introduced in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, with a large fall in emissions in 2020 followed by an increase in 2021, although not back up to 2019 levels. Since 2021, emissions have remained at around the same level each year, well below pre-Covid levels.
The additional end-user emissions are mainly emissions from the fuel supply sector which have been re-allocated to transport. Only a small proportion of the additional emissions relate to electricity for charging electric vehicles - the majority are due to processing of fuels, at refineries for example.
Although emissions from this sector have fallen below their peak in the early 2000s, there was very little overall change over the 10 years to 2019. In 2019, emissions at source were at exactly the same level as they were in 2012. The following two years, 2020 and 2021, were both affected by the national lockdowns that were introduced in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, with a large fall in emissions in 2020 followed by an increase in 2021, although not back up to 2019 levels. Since 2021, emissions have remained at around the same level each year, well below pre-Covid levels.
The additional end-user emissions are mainly emissions from the fuel supply sector which have been re-allocated to transport. Only a small proportion of the additional emissions relate to electricity for charging electric vehicles - the majority are due to processing of fuels, at refineries for example.
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Road transport is the most significant source of emissions in this sector - those are mostly from passenger cars, but light and heavy goods vehicles also contribute heavily.
The domestic transport sector was significantly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Prior to 2020, despite a steady long-term increase in both the number of licensed vehicles and vehicle kilometres travelled from 1990 onwards, emissions did gradually begin to decrease from 2017 to 2019. Diesel consumption in particular decreased in both 2018 and 2019, and combined with improvements in the fuel efficiency of both petrol and diesel cars, this resulted in a slight decrease in emissions from passenger cars in these years. Since 2018 there has been a decrease in the number of diesel cars, although this has been accompanied by a steady increase in the number of light goods vehicles, which tend to use diesel fuel rather than petrol.
Since the start of the Covid pandemic in 2020, emissions have increased again, although in 2023 they were still well below pre-Covid levels. This reflects the fact that, even though the overall number of licensed vehicles has increased in every year except 2020, both vehicle kilometres and fuel consumption are still well below pre-Covid levels, although both have also increased since 2020.
The domestic transport sector was significantly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Prior to 2020, despite a steady long-term increase in both the number of licensed vehicles and vehicle kilometres travelled from 1990 onwards, emissions did gradually begin to decrease from 2017 to 2019. Diesel consumption in particular decreased in both 2018 and 2019, and combined with improvements in the fuel efficiency of both petrol and diesel cars, this resulted in a slight decrease in emissions from passenger cars in these years. Since 2018 there has been a decrease in the number of diesel cars, although this has been accompanied by a steady increase in the number of light goods vehicles, which tend to use diesel fuel rather than petrol.
Since the start of the Covid pandemic in 2020, emissions have increased again, although in 2023 they were still well below pre-Covid levels. This reflects the fact that, even though the overall number of licensed vehicles has increased in every year except 2020, both vehicle kilometres and fuel consumption are still well below pre-Covid levels, although both have also increased since 2020.
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Although figures on the number of new vehicle licenses show that sales of electric and hybrid vehicles are going up, not all these new vehicles are replacing existing petrol and diesel ones. Some of these new vehicles are additional, with the previously owned petrol and diesel cars remaining on the road.
What needs to be done to reach net-zero?
The UK Government has committed to ending the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2035, so it’s likely that sales of these vehicles will slow steadily as we head towards that year. However, it will be important that new electric vehicles (EVs) are actually replacing older petrol and diesel vehicles currently being driven, and that these are not just additional vehicles on the road.
More will need to be done to remove the barriers to people choosing EVs over petrol and diesel vehicles. That will include greater investment in building the UK’s charging infrastructure, so that on-road charging points are plentiful and easily accessible, and that fast-charging is the norm rather than the exception. The payment system used by chargers will also need to improve, so that re-charging an electric vehicle is just as simple as paying to refill a car with fuel at a petrol station. Vehicle ranges will need to increase if switching is to be encouraged.
The cost of EVs remains high at present, and this is likely to be discouraging people who might think about switching from doing so. The variety of EVs available on the market will need to increase, and their cost come down if EVs are to become a more attractive option. All these things are already happening - but slowly. There will need to be more progress on all these things in the next few years, not until closer to 2035.
Emissions from both Light and Heavy Goods Vehicles (LGVs and HGVs) remain significant. Whilst emissions from passenger cars have come down over the last 30 years, despite an increase in the vehicle kilometres travelled, emissions from LGVs have noticeably increased over the same period. At the same time, HGVs have seen very little change in overall emissions. The vast majority of LGVs use diesel fuel, and as with cars, the cost of switching to electric LGVs is currently prohibitively high. The number of different vehicles on the market is still very limited, and this situation will need to change if switching is to be encouraged.
The UK will also need to build its renewables capacity, so that as drivers do gradually switch to EVs, these new vehicles are powered by renewable energy. At present, if every driver switched to an electric vehicle tomorrow that would be very bad news for the climate. This is because, with the UK’s existing renewables infrastructure not being capable of meeting the additional demand from all the new vehicles, most of the additional electricity needed to charge those vehicles would have to be generated by gas-fired power stations. Burning fossil fuels to generate the additional electricity would generate more, rather than fewer, greenhouse gas emissions. So it’s vital that renewable sources increase in parallel, and are available to match the demand for electricity as people switch to EVs.
What needs to be done to reach net-zero?
The UK Government has committed to ending the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2035, so it’s likely that sales of these vehicles will slow steadily as we head towards that year. However, it will be important that new electric vehicles (EVs) are actually replacing older petrol and diesel vehicles currently being driven, and that these are not just additional vehicles on the road.
More will need to be done to remove the barriers to people choosing EVs over petrol and diesel vehicles. That will include greater investment in building the UK’s charging infrastructure, so that on-road charging points are plentiful and easily accessible, and that fast-charging is the norm rather than the exception. The payment system used by chargers will also need to improve, so that re-charging an electric vehicle is just as simple as paying to refill a car with fuel at a petrol station. Vehicle ranges will need to increase if switching is to be encouraged.
The cost of EVs remains high at present, and this is likely to be discouraging people who might think about switching from doing so. The variety of EVs available on the market will need to increase, and their cost come down if EVs are to become a more attractive option. All these things are already happening - but slowly. There will need to be more progress on all these things in the next few years, not until closer to 2035.
Emissions from both Light and Heavy Goods Vehicles (LGVs and HGVs) remain significant. Whilst emissions from passenger cars have come down over the last 30 years, despite an increase in the vehicle kilometres travelled, emissions from LGVs have noticeably increased over the same period. At the same time, HGVs have seen very little change in overall emissions. The vast majority of LGVs use diesel fuel, and as with cars, the cost of switching to electric LGVs is currently prohibitively high. The number of different vehicles on the market is still very limited, and this situation will need to change if switching is to be encouraged.
The UK will also need to build its renewables capacity, so that as drivers do gradually switch to EVs, these new vehicles are powered by renewable energy. At present, if every driver switched to an electric vehicle tomorrow that would be very bad news for the climate. This is because, with the UK’s existing renewables infrastructure not being capable of meeting the additional demand from all the new vehicles, most of the additional electricity needed to charge those vehicles would have to be generated by gas-fired power stations. Burning fossil fuels to generate the additional electricity would generate more, rather than fewer, greenhouse gas emissions. So it’s vital that renewable sources increase in parallel, and are available to match the demand for electricity as people switch to EVs.
