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International Aviation and Shipping
Emissions from international aviation and shipping can be estimated based on refuelling from bunkers at UK airports and ports. That could be by either UK or non-UK operators.
At present, there is no agreed international approach for accounting for these emissions. For the purposes of international reporting, countries do not therefore include emissions from international aviation and shipping in their totals. These emissions are reported as what are called memo items in national greenhouse gas inventories.
However, the same does not apply for the UK’s Carbon Budgets, which do now allow for emissions from international aviation and shipping. In April 2021, the independent Climate Change Committee set the sixth Carbon Budget, covering the five-year period 2033-37. In doing so, they recommended that this Budget should for the first time incorporate the UK’s share of international aviation and shipping emissions. This means that the UK’s 2050 net-zero target does now include these emissions.
In 2023, emissions from international aviation and shipping combined were equivalent to over 10% of total UK territorial emissions in that year. Both aviation and shipping were significantly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, and emissions from both, particularly aviation, were noticeably lower in both 2020 and 2021 than in previous years. Although emissions from shipping have remained at a lower level since that time, emissions from aviation have increased again, and are now close to pre-Covid levels. For both aviation and shipping, emissions were almost entirely of carbon dioxide.
Between 1990 and 2006, emissions from international aviation increased by around 130%. Although they then fell between 2006 and 2010, from 2012 onwards emissions increased again up to 2019, prior to the pandemic. In 2019, emissions were 132% higher than in 1990, so above the previous 2006 peak. Although emissions from international aviation were greatly reduced during the pandemic, they increased significantly in 2022 and again in 2023, and may be returning to pre-Covid levels.
Since 1990, emissions from UK shipping bunkers have been highly variable. Emissions initially peaked in 1998 before then falling, but then increased again to another peak in 2008. This remains the highest level which these emissions have reached. Since 2008, although there have been year-on-year fluctuations, the general trend has been downwards. As with aviation, international shipping was also heavily impacted by the global Covid-19 pandemic. However, since 2020 emissions have remained around the same level, and in 2023 were 23% lower than in 1990.
At present, there is no agreed international approach for accounting for these emissions. For the purposes of international reporting, countries do not therefore include emissions from international aviation and shipping in their totals. These emissions are reported as what are called memo items in national greenhouse gas inventories.
However, the same does not apply for the UK’s Carbon Budgets, which do now allow for emissions from international aviation and shipping. In April 2021, the independent Climate Change Committee set the sixth Carbon Budget, covering the five-year period 2033-37. In doing so, they recommended that this Budget should for the first time incorporate the UK’s share of international aviation and shipping emissions. This means that the UK’s 2050 net-zero target does now include these emissions.
In 2023, emissions from international aviation and shipping combined were equivalent to over 10% of total UK territorial emissions in that year. Both aviation and shipping were significantly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, and emissions from both, particularly aviation, were noticeably lower in both 2020 and 2021 than in previous years. Although emissions from shipping have remained at a lower level since that time, emissions from aviation have increased again, and are now close to pre-Covid levels. For both aviation and shipping, emissions were almost entirely of carbon dioxide.
Between 1990 and 2006, emissions from international aviation increased by around 130%. Although they then fell between 2006 and 2010, from 2012 onwards emissions increased again up to 2019, prior to the pandemic. In 2019, emissions were 132% higher than in 1990, so above the previous 2006 peak. Although emissions from international aviation were greatly reduced during the pandemic, they increased significantly in 2022 and again in 2023, and may be returning to pre-Covid levels.
Since 1990, emissions from UK shipping bunkers have been highly variable. Emissions initially peaked in 1998 before then falling, but then increased again to another peak in 2008. This remains the highest level which these emissions have reached. Since 2008, although there have been year-on-year fluctuations, the general trend has been downwards. As with aviation, international shipping was also heavily impacted by the global Covid-19 pandemic. However, since 2020 emissions have remained around the same level, and in 2023 were 23% lower than in 1990.
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What needs to be done to reach net-zero?
International agreements that limit future emissions are likely to be critical if these emissions are to be reduced. Both the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) have acknowledged this.
In 2022, the ICAO Assembly adopted the collective long-term global aspirational goal for international aviation of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The Assembly also adopted the medium-term aspirational goal of keeping global net carbon emissions from international aviation at the same level from 2020 onwards. However, both resolutions were adopted without any attribution of specific obligations to individual Member States, meaning that there will be no specific allocation of emissions to states.
In practical terms, there will need to be an increase in the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) alongside improvements in aircraft technology. Demand management will also be needed in some form – this would clearly mean giving serious consideration to placing limits on any net expansion of UK airport capacity.
In 2023, IMO Member States adopted the IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships, which includes an ambition to reach net-zero emissions from international shipping “by or around” 2050, together with intermediate targets for 2030 (at least a 20% reduction compared to a 2008 base year) and 2040 (at least a 70% reduction). The Strategy also incorporates a commitment to increase the use of alternative zero or near-zero emissions fuels to at least 5% of the energy used by international shipping by 2030.
Emissions from international aviation and shipping are likely to be amongst the most difficult to reduce.
